1. Features and Objectives of Features and objectives of foundation.

The objectives of founding the Research Center for Chemical Risk Management are to establish theories for risk assessment and risk management essential for achieving effective use of chemicals as well as environmental safety, and to assist in scientific and rational decision-making by government institutions, businesses and citizens assist administrative organ, enterprises and citizens in making decisions scientifically and rationally through the presentation of examples of the research results.

The present important subject is to play leading role both in Japan and abroad in developing the academic, information and social infrastructure required for creating strategies for comprehensive chemical assessment and management technology.

For this reason, we will continue to carry out research and development on the exposure and toxicity assessment of chemical substances, new risk detection methods, risk assessment methods and socio-economic methods for risk management. Moreover we will also make efforts to transmit the research results though international organizations such as OECD and international academic societies and contribute to international society.

Our research will focus on developing in respect of research, we will conduct the development of mathematical models for simulating environmental dynamics and concentrations of chemicals positively, aiming at the development of environmental research. At the same time, we will emphasize the development of general-purpose models for common public use. 

Risk assessment methods that can be used for risk management remain underdeveloped around the world; thus we will endeavor to develop such methods. We will also actively carry out research for developing ecological risk assessment methods. Since we are the only research institution in Japan with the system to conduct comprehensive risk research including socio-economic analysis, we will take full advantage of our characteristic. 

Mathematical models for estimating concentrations of chemicals in the environment and risk assessment methods are essential tools for decision-making for risk management. This Center will devote all our energies to provide such common tools available for many people.

This is because common thinking tools are extremely useful in order to communicate and derive consensus as possible as we can, under various thinking ways. In FY 2002, we released the AIST-ADMER (Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Exposure and Risk Assessment) for the Kanto region, and during FY 2003 plan to release the Tokyo Bay Model and the national version of the ADMER, and to develop the English version of the ADMER and the model for estimating chemical concentrations in aquatic systems.

In FY 2002, we released a risk assessment document for 1,3-butadiene and hope to complete risk assessment documents for further seven substances during FY 2003. It is expected that these assessment documents will change the attitude of Japanese society towards risk of chemical substances.

A mission of AIST is to promote Type II basic research and establish Full Research based thereon. Full research involves a production of new service and products ultimately, by undergoing stages of Type I basic research, Type II basic research and development or going on and backs the stages in some cases for the purpose of meeting social needs.

Risk assessment is not a tangible object but an important product. It is an essential tool for effective functioning of society and for developing rules for distributing wealth and risk.

In such meaning, our goal includes: 1) frequent usage of our risk assessment, 2) risk assessment allowing energy-saving operation, 3) risk assessment enabling a society with less risk, 4) facilitation of derivation of consensus by sharing risk assessment method, and we wish to strive for Type II basic research and full research in order to put the product of risk assessment method into the world. 

However, unlike general products, risk assessment method is not a product we can feel the goodness by sense but that requiring extremely high-level reason. Accordingly it is necessary to explain the necessity to the society always, which is also considered to be our mission. 

We also hope to challenge further development of risk assessment. Specifically, this means the application of risk assessment to the development of alternatives for materials that are banned or restricted in use due to their environmental impact. Risk assessment method itself must become totally different from conventional one.

2. Overview of Important Research Subjects

2.1 Research expected for researchers and actual research duty

Researchers must carry out both vertical and horizontal research activities.

Vertical research is elemental research, so to speak, basic research, and includes research that shows signs of success. Horizontal research, involves carrying out risk assessment of specific chemical substances, which can be said to be actual research duty.　

It is necessary to master almost all elements of vertical research for horizontal research, which requires researchers to grasp general image of environmental risk assessment as well as leaning all about specialty. Horizontal research is an example of a process that leads to full research through Type II fundamental research described in chapter 1.

Although researchers tend to remain in their specialty and stay in the situation without mutual criticism, it is expected that conducting horizontal and vertical researches will activate mutual criticism. In addition, the results of vertical researches should be summarized in the form that is easily available to others. 

The table below shows roughly a relationship of both researches as an example (the research contents are simplified): ◎ requires to deal with the research as the researcher in the field or specialist and ○ requires to deal with the research as general analyst.

Table. Horizontal and Vertical Research

Vertical Research: Horizontal Research:		Concentration estimation model	Toxicity assessment	Risk assessment method	Socio-economic analysis
		A	B	C	D
Dioxins	A	◎	○	○	○
Toluene	B	○	○	○	◎

(As researcher A is a specialist in concentration estimation including modeling, he will be required to accomplish specific research results in that area. On the other hand he will also be responsible for producing a risk assessment document for dioxins, which may require the assistance of other researchers to perform toxicity assessment, risk estimation and efficiency assessment.)

2.2 Main Research Subjects Concerning Risk Assessment Method Development (Vertical Research)

1) Development of Chemical Exposure Assessment Method

1. Development of Method for Estimating Concentrations of Chemicals in the Environment

・Development of atmospheric dispersion model: Improvement of the Japanese and English versions of ADMER, improvement of METI-LIS (Version 1.0) and development of an atmospheric dispersion model including chemical reaction processes

・Development of a model for estimating chemical concentrations in water: Development of a model incorporating hydrologic characteristics as a diagnosis tool for ecological risk assessment

・Multimedia model: Development of a model for estimating residual chemical concentrations in various environmental media including soil and surface water systems

・Coastal bioaccumulation model: Release of the chemicals environmental concentration prediction and risk assessment model in Tokyo Bay and improvement of the models for estimating environmental fate and transport of chemicals

2. Research on the Estimation of Exposure

・Method of estimating exposure from various media and accumulation of data for estimation (particularly indoor exposure and exposure via food intake)

3. Research on Individual Differences and Variations in Exposure

2) Development of Ecological Risk Assessment Method

・Screening-level assessment of ecological risks of persistent chemicals in the environment

・Development of a population-level ecological risk assessment system

・Research for methods of more realistic ecological risk assessment and ecological risk management approach

・Development of an ecological risk assessment method considering species interactions

3) Detection of New Risks

・Development of a method for detecting new risks: Development of a screening method using DNA micro-array technology

4) Research on Toxicity and Risk Assessment Methods

・Development of a toxicity assessment method necessary for risk assessment jointly with external researchers

5) Development of a Integrated Framework for Risk Management and Presentation of Results

・Development of uncertainty-based risk management guidance: Implementation of risk assessment under conditions of uncertainty and variability

・Research concerning the risk assessment scale for risk management (Research concerning QOL and WTP)

・Socio-economic assessment of risk reduction measures: Development of cost benefit analysis methods for chemical risk reduction measures

Research in this area is underdeveloped. In FY 2003, we hope to produce more tangible results.

6) Research on Risk Assessment for Replacement Development

2.3 Preparation of Risk Assessment Documents (Horizontal Research: Research Practices)

Each researcher assumes the responsibility of the preparation of risk assessment document for risk management based on risk assessment about chemical substances at issue.

The risk assessment document is an important writing that is expected to be a scientific base in case of considering measures for chemical substances management by administration, industry and citizens. The risk assessment document must reflect the results of vertical research discussed in section 2.2 and cover the contents below:

1) Source analysis
2) Simulation of environmental concentrations and exposure analysis
3) Toxicity assessment
4) Presentation of multiple potential risk management options
5) Risk assessment and socio-economic assessment of risk management options
6) Proposals for risk management strategies

The detailed risk assessment document requires two aspects: 1) reasoning based on firm evidence which allows the consent of many peoples and 2) development and use of adventurous new method.

2.4 Research and Activities for Returning Results to Society 

Research and activities for returning the developed analytical tools to the society is expected. Specifically, they include public distribution and guidance on using the simulation model for estimating concentrations in the environment, the presentation and publication of other analysis tools, the development of educational software for citizens, the preparation and organization of risk assessment seminars and the preparation of text for the seminars.

3. Goals for FY 2003

3.1 Risk Assessment Method (Vertical Research)

Methods for assessing human health risks, for example, QOL, WTP and relative risk comparison, and population-level risks must be completed to allow practical use. The details will be determined through interviews with researchers.

3.2 Risk Assessment Document (Horizontal Research)

Preparation and release of the revised version of the detailed risk assessment document for 1,3-butadiene (Version 2.0) and risk assessment documents for another seven substances

3.3 Analysis Tools to be Made Publicly Available

1) Release and public provision of the Japanese national version of ADMER and preparation of the English version
2) Public release of the Tokyo Bay Model
3) Development of the watershed model
4) Release of Risk Learning
5) Completion and release of the exposure factor handbook
6) Continued publication of newsletters and revision of the website

4. Morals of the Research Center 

1) We will maintain awareness and a sense of responsibility in view of the fact that the Center is operated by public fund.

2) We will, as a research center specializing in environmental issues and safety, take responsibility and consider environmental protection and safety management (including the management of chemicals used in the laboratory).

5. Evaluation of Researchers

Short-term evaluation of researchers must be made based on the following three elements, which reflects on achievement allowance.

1) Results (Capability, future and attitude are not included in assessment targets.)

2) Quality of the results (for example, e.g., influence to the society, individual analysis and creative viewpoint)

3) Achievement degree of objective set by those who are assessed

Herein, results should be visible, showing a significance of the presence of this research center to the society. Although social activities are of importance, commissioned and academic activities should be limited to should be restricted in those that meets the objectives of the Center.

Long-term assessment, A thought that long-term assessment is an accumulation of short-term evaluations is not taken. The long-term assessment will be made based on elements such as those listed below.

1) Research capability (*),future and leadership (A capability marked with * asterisk requires administrative and management skills needed for running the Center as the case may be. It seems difficult to operate research center only by researchers. (Required capabilities differs from different grades such as Class 2 - 3 and Class 3 - 4.)

2) Direction of research (The capability to explain the necessity and direction of research is required.)

3) Past achievements